Sunday, November 16, 2008
Boston Globe - What a depression would like
I'm not the only one thinking about this (call me Captain Obvious).
Friday, November 14, 2008
Allahpunit Scares Me
A masterfuly set up youtube montage. Watch both clips. And weep.
Blogger stocking up on ammunition, canned goods for recession
Blogger stocking up on ammunition, canned goods for recession
Another Bleak Friday
What's new? The market dropped 300 points and change on the news of a 3% drop in October consumer spending. As some Fox talking head put it, "the largest drop ever seen." Meanwhile, Henry Paulson explains why the absolutely necessary, non-negotiable, finger in the dyke against the coming apocalypse, 700 Billion Dollar plan to buy "toxic assets" had to be, er, abandoned in favor of alternate strategies. Here's a chilling quote:
"By the time the process with Congress was completed, it was clear that we were facing a much more severe situation than we had envisioned earlier on"
A more severe situation?
I recall reading reports (can't find any links at the moment) that Paulson scared the hell out of Congress and the President vis-a-vis the necessity of the TARP on September 15. And now its worse?
Oy vey.
Incidentally, the two reports listed above have a connection (beyond the obvious) in my view. On September 15, Paulson tells Congress that the world is about to go to hell. The news reports were of a kind and tone that I'd never heard before. In October consumer spending drops. Are these two events, perhaps, related?
Let's see how oil did today. Dropped a couple of percent to 57.04. Wonderful. Opec may cut production again. Most money says it really won't matter much.
On the other hand ... I don't know what a depression looks like "on the street" but judging by traffic, crowds and so forth, my little neck of the woods doesn't seem ... depressed. The drop in oil and, more importantly from my viewpoint, natural gas doesn't seem to have shut off business around here. However, 2008 acquisition budgets are being put together right now. That can't be good.
Are we being talked into something really bad (as opposed to something "merely" bad)? Right now, everyone I know is, more or less, scared shitless. Everyone I know is, at the same time, fine for the moment. Given the economy's dependence on "sentiment," is it a good idea for every media outlet to fan the flames? There's a disjunction here. Talking about someone else's apocalypse over a pint of beer is good fun. Living your own aint. I predict that this, whatever it is, will end at the moment the electronic media begins to believe that they are about to be tossed out of their homes. Then it will be "This is America! We can do anything."
"By the time the process with Congress was completed, it was clear that we were facing a much more severe situation than we had envisioned earlier on"
A more severe situation?
I recall reading reports (can't find any links at the moment) that Paulson scared the hell out of Congress and the President vis-a-vis the necessity of the TARP on September 15. And now its worse?
Oy vey.
Incidentally, the two reports listed above have a connection (beyond the obvious) in my view. On September 15, Paulson tells Congress that the world is about to go to hell. The news reports were of a kind and tone that I'd never heard before. In October consumer spending drops. Are these two events, perhaps, related?
***
Let's see how oil did today. Dropped a couple of percent to 57.04. Wonderful. Opec may cut production again. Most money says it really won't matter much.
***
On the other hand ... I don't know what a depression looks like "on the street" but judging by traffic, crowds and so forth, my little neck of the woods doesn't seem ... depressed. The drop in oil and, more importantly from my viewpoint, natural gas doesn't seem to have shut off business around here. However, 2008 acquisition budgets are being put together right now. That can't be good.
***
***
I'm not suggesting that this is all hype. But, almost by definition, part of it is. I hope it's a large part.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Blog the Apocalypse
Like many of its kind, this blog was created on a whim. And promptly abandoned.
Quite frankly, I'm not precisely sure what I had in mind at all. I think I may have envisioned it as a meta-blog - a blog about blogs! I mean, heck, that's been, er, rarely done. The fact is, I have a pretty demanding job, very little free time and, this is the kicker, very little to say. Until now, that is. Now I have one thing to say (phrased in the form of a question): Are we going into a great depression?
Probably not. I hope not.
I'm a little too old, a little too chickenshit (and not nearly rich enough) to contemplate a "Road Warrior" America with anything other than abject horror. I've done the poor grad student thing, I've done the buy whatever you want on credit thing, and have had enough. I am now the anxious, risk averse, penny pinching, petty bourgoise businessman that Rousseau warned you about. Just like everyone else, by the way.
Just like everyone else (see, that was worth saying twice). That is to say, we're all hunkered down, waiting to see how it'll go. Because we have no fucking idea what's going on, what caused it, or what will happen next. Even the people who always pretend to know what's going on have stopped pretending. That terrifies us most of all.
So, this blog will be my attempt to figure out what happened, what caused it and what's going to happen. It serves this purpose in two ways.
First, it'll give me a chance to record my impressions of things on a regular basis. No small advantage that. When you're busy, time passes, you forget what you were thinking last summer or spring, much less what you were thinking two years ago. Two years ago I know that I had at least an inkling of some serious problems with subprime mortgages; did I understand that the mortgage mess would metastasize into what we have now? I don't know, I can't remember, I didn't write anything down. Writing it down ... like marking off days in a prison cell, as it were. At least you know where you've been.
Second, I'd like to take the opportunity to learn a little about the financial system. Not for any practical purpose that I can think of, mind you. More akin to the way a terminally ill patient might study up on his disease ("hmmm, they said the hallucinations would start about now, I'll be darned").
So there ya go.
The Apocalypse will be blogged.
Yesterday, I happened to run across this article. A fascinating primer for a neophyte like myself. Incidentally, Michael Lewis is also the author of Liar's Poker. The wikipedia entry for the book included the following:
"He also noted that, although most arrivals on Wall Street studied economics, this knowledge was never used—in fact, any academic knowledge was frowned on by traders."
Take away points for me:
1. The guys managing the finances of, well, the world are not economists, they're salesmen.
2. They're cunning rather than bright (and palpably anti-intellectual).
I have to admit, this sort of surprised me. I suppose that at higher levels (engineers of trading software and so forth) there is some serious thought put into basic questions of how markets function. But the guys actually making the deals are high end car salesmen.
Quite frankly, I'm not precisely sure what I had in mind at all. I think I may have envisioned it as a meta-blog - a blog about blogs! I mean, heck, that's been, er, rarely done. The fact is, I have a pretty demanding job, very little free time and, this is the kicker, very little to say. Until now, that is. Now I have one thing to say (phrased in the form of a question): Are we going into a great depression?
Probably not. I hope not.
I'm a little too old, a little too chickenshit (and not nearly rich enough) to contemplate a "Road Warrior" America with anything other than abject horror. I've done the poor grad student thing, I've done the buy whatever you want on credit thing, and have had enough. I am now the anxious, risk averse, penny pinching, petty bourgoise businessman that Rousseau warned you about. Just like everyone else, by the way.
Just like everyone else (see, that was worth saying twice). That is to say, we're all hunkered down, waiting to see how it'll go. Because we have no fucking idea what's going on, what caused it, or what will happen next. Even the people who always pretend to know what's going on have stopped pretending. That terrifies us most of all.
So, this blog will be my attempt to figure out what happened, what caused it and what's going to happen. It serves this purpose in two ways.
First, it'll give me a chance to record my impressions of things on a regular basis. No small advantage that. When you're busy, time passes, you forget what you were thinking last summer or spring, much less what you were thinking two years ago. Two years ago I know that I had at least an inkling of some serious problems with subprime mortgages; did I understand that the mortgage mess would metastasize into what we have now? I don't know, I can't remember, I didn't write anything down. Writing it down ... like marking off days in a prison cell, as it were. At least you know where you've been.
Second, I'd like to take the opportunity to learn a little about the financial system. Not for any practical purpose that I can think of, mind you. More akin to the way a terminally ill patient might study up on his disease ("hmmm, they said the hallucinations would start about now, I'll be darned").
So there ya go.
The Apocalypse will be blogged.
***
Yesterday, I happened to run across this article. A fascinating primer for a neophyte like myself. Incidentally, Michael Lewis is also the author of Liar's Poker. The wikipedia entry for the book included the following:
"He also noted that, although most arrivals on Wall Street studied economics, this knowledge was never used—in fact, any academic knowledge was frowned on by traders."
Take away points for me:
1. The guys managing the finances of, well, the world are not economists, they're salesmen.
2. They're cunning rather than bright (and palpably anti-intellectual).
I have to admit, this sort of surprised me. I suppose that at higher levels (engineers of trading software and so forth) there is some serious thought put into basic questions of how markets function. But the guys actually making the deals are high end car salesmen.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Perhaps I was a bit Hasty
I've been too busy to do much blogging the last week or so. However, I did follow Lileks' reports from the Democratic Convention - a performance that gave the lie to my Lileks-is-being-worked-to-death-by-a-dying-newspaper-in-a-dying-industry thesis. If anything, the man sounded positively chipper. And, then, there's this piece of evidence from Hot Air. More Chipperishness. Obviously, the sage of Minneapolis has adjusted. And good for him, I say.
On a related note, I see that Pajamas Media has lined up a number of right of center Blog Stars (Lileks, Michelle Malkin, Glen Reynolds, etc.) for a paid online video "network" called Pajamas TV. The monthly fee sounds a little steep to me (from $15 to $37 /Mo. depending on the plan) but I'm certainly behind the idea in principle. An awful lot of content has poured out across the web for little or no remuneration. This cannot continue. Someone has to figure out how to monetize web content and, er, charging for services sounds like a good place to start.
On a related note, I see that Pajamas Media has lined up a number of right of center Blog Stars (Lileks, Michelle Malkin, Glen Reynolds, etc.) for a paid online video "network" called Pajamas TV. The monthly fee sounds a little steep to me (from $15 to $37 /Mo. depending on the plan) but I'm certainly behind the idea in principle. An awful lot of content has poured out across the web for little or no remuneration. This cannot continue. Someone has to figure out how to monetize web content and, er, charging for services sounds like a good place to start.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Breaking: Lileks Upset, Refuses Comment
More here.
I'm not sure what his current damage is (apparently has something to do with the new website that magically failed to materialize at buzz.mn). Whatever it is, it's just part of a long, slow decline evident to all since The Catrostrophe. His position after the catastrophe is clearly much more demanding, leaving him with less time to do what he does best, obsess over the inconsequential and write charming little anecdotes about his daughter. Even The Diner has suffered. And that, my fellow Americans, is a crime.
We really have to make a place in this world for certain people to entertain themselves and others without the harsh demands of the shareholder looking over their shoulder. As an outside observer and fan I always had the sense of Jasperwood as suburbia's answer to Shangri La. A small piece of safety and quiet perched precariously above that world of sinister intrigue and petty bickering that we know as, well, the world.
But, we must face facts, however unpleasant. Jasperwood has fallen. Alas, Jasperwood has Fallen!
There is nothing left to us but lamentation. And for those sympathetic to Lilek's employers, those who say writing two short columns a week is not a "real job," I ask you, could any rational, bean counter approved business model have produced this?
I'm not sure what his current damage is (apparently has something to do with the new website that magically failed to materialize at buzz.mn). Whatever it is, it's just part of a long, slow decline evident to all since The Catrostrophe. His position after the catastrophe is clearly much more demanding, leaving him with less time to do what he does best, obsess over the inconsequential and write charming little anecdotes about his daughter. Even The Diner has suffered. And that, my fellow Americans, is a crime.
We really have to make a place in this world for certain people to entertain themselves and others without the harsh demands of the shareholder looking over their shoulder. As an outside observer and fan I always had the sense of Jasperwood as suburbia's answer to Shangri La. A small piece of safety and quiet perched precariously above that world of sinister intrigue and petty bickering that we know as, well, the world.
But, we must face facts, however unpleasant. Jasperwood has fallen. Alas, Jasperwood has Fallen!
There is nothing left to us but lamentation. And for those sympathetic to Lilek's employers, those who say writing two short columns a week is not a "real job," I ask you, could any rational, bean counter approved business model have produced this?
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